ImpliedOdds.
ImpliedOddsHi everyone. I’m re-posting this to clarify what chart conditions I was evaluating when I took this trade that went against me. Hope you can share some thoughts and we can move forward learning and getting better together.
Pros:
1) Red bars everywhere.
2) DM indicator: red over green
3) Nearby stops approx. same distance above and below.
Cons:
1) Price near green on range indicator.
ImpliedOddsResult
ImpliedOddsTook a long with a modest take profit at the stop levels above. Went dramatically against me.
Tim TimThe negatives for me:
1st At the top of 4H range big negative for a long
2nd Net DM shorts decreasing(could be a sign the short squeeze is over)
3rd The big longy nest on the y-axis is a lot lower( price can move all the way down to it without them longs getting into profit)
Thuy PhamNegatives for me:
1st, Net DM shorts decreasing
2nd, On the 1H chart, there were no new shorties or longies, there was nothing going on for 10+ hours.
If you’re going to take intraday scalps towards the targets, wait for the market to make a move first(new longies/shorties coming in), then you can trade against the DM.
ImpliedOddsHi fellas. Thank you for your thoughts. I can see your points here. However, what is puzzling to me is that while the DM indicator is pointing down slightly, the red shortie line was a substantial amount above the green line overall and there was a ton of red shortie bars everywhere on all of the charts. I could understand the price dipping down a bit, but to basically take out that entire range makes me wonder about this concept that the MM’ers don’t want anyone to win? They certainly didn’t seem concerned with the shorties winning here. Good trading this week. I’ll post my trades and hope to see yours as well.
Admin SMEHi Implied Odds,
we will ask Djamal to look at this thread and to comment.
Please do not trade live, it appears that you still need to learn a lot dear.
SME FX
Admin SMEDjamal, this is the thread,
please comment. It was about AUDUSD:
FractalFreakOk,
hello,
I will now explain in detail what the errors were, implied odds.
First of all, when you entered, AUDUSD was already near the upper H4 channel band. That means that there was already “H4 reversal energy” (see here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CE5uQfIZt3s&t=437s).
The ONLY situation in which you could have bought the dip in AUDUSD would have been if there would have been a clear, ongoing squeeze. However, as you can see from your own screenshots, that was not the case,
both squeeze lines were below the squeeze cutoff line. There was neither strong, new DM flow, only some older ones, these not even high on the scale (like 36).
That means, you did the mistake of “buying into an H4 reversal”, this at expensive prices, this without a squeeze, this without fresh flow, this without a good stop target.
Never do that because the H4 reversal can go all the way to the lower H4 channel band.
Also, as you can see from your day chart screenshot, you also bought into “old longies”, this after the day chart MA has already been kissed and the range was stretched.
It was clearly not a buy trade.
Please stop trading immediately and go back to basics. There are a few topics you need to internalize better.
No worries, you will get there. Just put in the hours.
Djamal
ImpliedOddsHey Djamal. Well, obviously not fun being shown how wrong you are (lol), but thank you so much for taking the time to explain all of my mistakes and offer encouragement. I’m headed back to the videos to clear up my understanding of these things. Through my upcoming learning and demo, I’ll continue to post some charts. Hope we can all share our trades and continue to learn together. Thanks to everyone on the forum for their comments as well.
FractalFreakHere I show you the comments on your H4 shot:
FractalFreakOne important point:
the “old” DM shorties had entries far below the current price. They were already “priced in”, they were not in the way of a H4 reversal:
FractalFreakH1:
FractalFreakSo overall quite a beginner’s mistake, however, as you can see, you would not do that again if the points above are understood.
Never buy into an H4 reversal that has already started, UNLESS you either have a strong, ongoing squeeze (that already exists) and there are supporting factors, such as newer, proper shorties, a longer MTS target etc.
If anything, that was an H4 short trade for ADVANCED MK traders (who would only use low leverage).
In the latest session I did, you can also see my live prediction of the AU down-move (around 43:22):
FractalFreakI hope that helps IO.
Do not give up, such mistakes are made in the beginning. However, please do some demo trading first. All concepts need to be really internalized before going live.
Lots of love,
Djamal
PS: I now go back to my long-term tasks.
ImpliedOddsThanks again Djamal. Back to the videos for me!
FractalFreakHere a sumamry:
An advanced MK trader may have taken the short AUDUSD trade.
Setup: H4 reversal down
Pros:
– big MTS have been taken out
– previous high has been cleared
– Day chart MA has been kissed
– old longies just above price
– STS below the price
– DM flow decreased
– the price is near the upper H4 reversal band
– no ongoing squeeze
– old shorties have entries far below the price
– no upper stops nearby
– red squeeze is downward sloping
– no major shorties in the way until around 0.678 (there a shorties nest starts)
Cons:
– no proper DM switch(that is a big one)
– no net loss reversal (green line not in yellow area)
– no good targets below the price
Summary:
Tradable short but not worth a lot. Hence low leverage. Target a buffer before the lower shorties nest.
FractalFreakIf you combine such analysis from the H1, H4 and DC, you will see these things rather quickly (with just a little more screentime that is).
Djamal
FractalFreakI made a video to help:
BenHey Djamal,
Just wanted to drop a thank you for providing this detailed breakdown, and also in general for breaking down trade logic and thought processes more recently. I’ve spent around a month studying your YT videos and video course, and these trade details have filled a massive gap in my understanding.
Looking forward to subscribing to the live streams and finally taking some demo trades!
All the best,
Ben
FractalFreakThank you, Ben.
D
Christopher MirandaHi all. I hope this is ok, but so we don’t have to scroll forever, i’m suggesting a trade thread where we title them “Trades – Week ending XX/XX/XXXX”. I think this will allow everyone to concentrate on the current thread for the week and share thoughts and ideas. I had one last week that Chris was nice enough to comment on and mark up, but looking back I think he thought the result screen shot was what I based the trade on. I’m going to post a trade thread for last week. Look forward to learning together and helping each other.
Yup its a good idea. If you can, just try to keep it to one new trades thread for each week, please and thanks.
Btw I was aware of what you based your trade on, I was not thinking of the result screenshot.
ImpliedOddsGot it. Thanks Chris!
Thuy PhamUSDJPY buy back into the range, lots of MTS above the price and a little DM switch from long to short
Thuy PhamAll MTS taken out
Christopher MirandaA great little buy. Had a feeling they would leave the market before it actually took out all the stops.
Admin SMEWell done!
SME FX
