Trades – Week Ending 12/16/2022

The negatives for me:

1st At the top of 4H range big negative for a long
2nd Net DM shorts decreasing(could be a sign the short squeeze is over)
3rd The big longy nest on the y-axis is a lot lower( price can move all the way down to it without them longs getting into profit)

Hi Implied Odds,

we will ask Djamal to look at this thread and to comment.
Please do not trade live, it appears that you still need to learn a lot dear.

SME FX

Djamal, this is the thread,

please comment. It was about AUDUSD:

Ok,

hello,
I will now explain in detail what the errors were, implied odds.

First of all, when you entered, AUDUSD was already near the upper H4 channel band. That means that there was already “H4 reversal energy” (see here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CE5uQfIZt3s&t=437s).
The ONLY situation in which you could have bought the dip in AUDUSD would have been if there would have been a clear, ongoing squeeze. However, as you can see from your own screenshots, that was not the case,
both squeeze lines were below the squeeze cutoff line. There was neither strong, new DM flow, only some older ones, these not even high on the scale (like 36).

That means, you did the mistake of “buying into an H4 reversal”, this at expensive prices, this without a squeeze, this without fresh flow, this without a good stop target.
Never do that because the H4 reversal can go all the way to the lower H4 channel band.

Also, as you can see from your day chart screenshot, you also bought into “old longies”, this after the day chart MA has already been kissed and the range was stretched.
It was clearly not a buy trade.
Please stop trading immediately and go back to basics. There are a few topics you need to internalize better.

No worries, you will get there. Just put in the hours.
Djamal

Here I show you the comments on your H4 shot:

One important point:

the “old” DM shorties had entries far below the current price. They were already “priced in”, they were not in the way of a H4 reversal:

H1:

So overall quite a beginner’s mistake, however, as you can see, you would not do that again if the points above are understood.

Never buy into an H4 reversal that has already started, UNLESS you either have a strong, ongoing squeeze (that already exists) and there are supporting factors, such as newer, proper shorties, a longer MTS target etc.

If anything, that was an H4 short trade for ADVANCED MK traders (who would only use low leverage).

In the latest session I did, you can also see my live prediction of the AU down-move (around 43:22):

I hope that helps IO.
Do not give up, such mistakes are made in the beginning. However, please do some demo trading first. All concepts need to be really internalized before going live.

Lots of love,
Djamal

PS: I now go back to my long-term tasks.

Here a sumamry:

An advanced MK trader may have taken the short AUDUSD trade.

Setup: H4 reversal down

Pros:
– big MTS have been taken out
– previous high has been cleared
– Day chart MA has been kissed
– old longies just above price
– STS below the price
– DM flow decreased
– the price is near the upper H4 reversal band
– no ongoing squeeze
– old shorties have entries far below the price
– no upper stops nearby
– red squeeze is downward sloping
– no major shorties in the way until around 0.678 (there a shorties nest starts)

Cons:
– no proper DM switch(that is a big one)
– no net loss reversal (green line not in yellow area)
– no good targets below the price

Summary:
Tradable short but not worth a lot. Hence low leverage. Target a buffer before the lower shorties nest.

If you combine such analysis from the H1, H4 and DC, you will see these things rather quickly (with just a little more screentime that is).

Djamal

I made a video to help:

Hey Djamal,

Just wanted to drop a thank you for providing this detailed breakdown, and also in general for breaking down trade logic and thought processes more recently. I’ve spent around a month studying your YT videos and video course, and these trade details have filled a massive gap in my understanding.

Looking forward to subscribing to the live streams and finally taking some demo trades!

All the best,
Ben

Thank you, Ben.

D

ImpliedOdds wrote:

Hi all. I hope this is ok, but so we don’t have to scroll forever, i’m suggesting a trade thread where we title them “Trades – Week ending XX/XX/XXXX”. I think this will allow everyone to concentrate on the current thread for the week and share thoughts and ideas. I had one last week that Chris was nice enough to comment on and mark up, but looking back I think he thought the result screen shot was what I based the trade on. I’m going to post a trade thread for last week. Look forward to learning together and helping each other.

Yup its a good idea. If you can, just try to keep it to one new trades thread for each week, please and thanks.
Btw I was aware of what you based your trade on, I was not thinking of the result screenshot.

USDJPY buy back into the range, lots of MTS above the price and a little DM switch from long to short

Well done!

SME FX