FractalFreak.
NeilI’ve been thinking about the kausality, for 2 years, and I’m undoubtedly wrong but…. isn’t the market moving against traders because they are exiting opposite positions? So say lots of traders are short after consolidation and they see the price move long, they will cascade out of their short positions with long market orders. On the chart they will be shown as red volume but is this because your data feed recognises them as originally short orders now hitting ask at market to get out? Price will move up quickly with the flood of liquidity. It seems that the market is moving against short orders but is this because of their depiction as red volume. In reality they are green and the market moving correctly.
I can’t see your data feed so I’m just asking the question.
Cheers 🙂
Admin SME“. isn’t the market moving against traders because they are exiting opposite positions? ”
Hi Neil.
To make a long story short, no.
First of all, the market moves against DM traders who opened positions / their positions already in the market.
Once a group of DM traders got stop-hunted (= kicked out), you can see the price “breathing” back towards the range. That is like what Djamal calls a “post-stop hunt move”.
Also, the SM algos do not need to “mirror” any DM positions “1:1”, because they have full price control. Yes, the SM will “cash in” on a regular basis, but their own overall net exposure can be different, sometimes even opposite from their most recent cash in.
Admin SME“On the chart they will be shown as red volume but is this because your data feed recognises them as originally short orders now hitting ask at market to get out? ”
No.
The “red bars” are actual DM short positions. So these are open positions (on the historical histogram you can also see the ones who were already kicked out of the market).
If positions are closed, the respective position bars disappear from the “current DM histogram” / the y-axis.
FractalFreakAlso remember that you can see any open LIMIT orders;
while yellow lines above the price are the MTS of the shorties and orange lines below the price the MTS of the longies;
the orange lines ABOVE the price and the yellow lines BELOW the price are limit orders.
however,
as you will easily see, these limits are usually no significant price drivers. the SM may “pick these up along the way”, but almost never will the SM explicitly push the price to such limit accumulations.
the thing they have a BIG appetite for is the MTS. 😉
D
FractalFreakBy the way, I once had an indi that would directly show the SM’s own “counter trades”, but that data feed stopped and to be fair, it was neither much of added value. You can pretty much see “everything” with the current MK.
D
FractalFreakNeil,
maybe this UJ chart will help you to understand;
when the DM shorties kept on selling UJ, the SM pushed it all the way up.
Once the DM switched to long, it reversed.
Pretty clear how it works, no?
UserXIs this Fractal freak of forexfactory?
NeilUserX, the very same and I’m honoured to get a reply Djamal, thanks. That is the way I understood everything but just wanted to check my understanding following a sudden idea I had. It seems so odd that DM will continually short a rising market, it is counter intuitive so I was trying a different explanation that makes sense. Did you mean appetite for LTS? Cheers 🙂
Christopher MirandaHe definitely did mean MTS. You are correct, it is absolutely crazy that DM continually increases their losses, day after day, week after week, but it is simply the truth, it is how the minds of the majority work in our world. And as far as i know, they basically have no other option but to lose, as no matter what they try, the SM algo will move against them/cause them to lose in the end.
This also happens because what we know as “DM” is not as simple as a person/algorithm making trades based off of indicators or analysis or anything. The true large scale “DM” are massive entities that are exchanging currencies globally, such as governments, corporations, hedge funds and large investment firms etc, rather than trying to trade for profit as we do.
I know I am not 100% correct, but its close I think.
FractalFreakHi Chris,
yes, that is correct.
FF
FractalFreakHi Neil,
that is correct,
but that is exactly what the DM does.
FF
NeilThanks, yes I thought MTS were the ones, when I read the explanation above it seemed to suggest MTS don’t move price and then concluded that they were the target, I got confused. The important thing I take from all this is that SME FX volume data is very different to my retail volumes on Tradovate or FXCM. You just can’t see these volumes on normal data feeds. Is this correct?
I agree that stops do seem to get swept up in the course of price moving and not necessarily the primary target. I see price moving to fill in voids in volume, however these places are exactly where stops are placed also, because they are above/below previous price turns.
FractalFreakAs you will realize soon (by watching the Mk web), the MTS tend to be main targets for the SM.
Once the price is “out-of-the-range”, then the SM will also go for LTS.
In general, there is no need for the SM to “run behind” any stops. Quite the contrary. In the rare cases where the DM tries to pull its MTS away, the SM often goes into the opposite direction again in order to “lure these in”.
And in most cases, that works.
Yes, all the data shown is completely different from anything else you find out there. Normal “volume” will not help neither.
Keep in mind that the data filtering etc. is highly complex, however, that is nothing you need to worry about. Just trade what you see. 😉
Yes, the DM tends to increase on one side and then just makes its losses bigger. See USDJPY over the last 5 months.
FF
UserXI believe the number one nemesis depending on who the are…is your broker and their liquidity provider.
I have seen some incredible things and I seem to be some sort of marker or a target for my broker/liquidity provider.
The title of this thread is fitting and is what attracted me in the first place.
I believe that the manipulation is on a more intimate and directed level.
I can show you plenty of examples where the market is singling me out…I know it’s sounds unbelievable. I thought the same, but I kept seeing it again and again to this day. Whoever it is they know my exact average price as I normally break up my position in several orders.
I’ve also did the questionable and put it to the test.
Whoever it is most likely injecting orders into the market to pull or push price against my position. The algorithm they are using is a beast and I can only trade profitable in particular setups otherwise I’m going to be sought and destroyed. I am with a world wide broker – a very old and powerful one from the states.
I can put up multiple examples of price “bullying” my position. I have even used it to STOP price from moving further on it’s intended course. I thought it was just coincidence, but I’ve seen it so many times and in such amazing incidences….
FractalFreak“I can put up multiple examples of price “bullying” my position. ”
Yes, that is right.
FF
