[ImpliedOdds]

Hello. The attached is a good example of what has caused my frustration. I’m not intending to be critical. Just trying to share what has caused me frustration. I’ve tried to move towards the H4 as has been recommended. In this chart, price is at the top of the range. Longs clearly in profit. Price has dropped in the past consistently on this chart in nearly every previous instance where green has presented itself (see black arrows). Now, a very LARGE green bar presents itself and price explodes UP undoubtedly taking out any realistic short stop. This is on demo, but this is the typical type of trade that “happens to me” . The longer I go and try and follow the rules, the more I see that ANY parameter (let’s say the yellow stops on the vertical bar that are above) seem to be enough to outweigh any others. With this type of situation, as a trader, it makes you hesitant to take any trade. Would love thoughts, guidance, constructive criticisms from anyone who’d like to discuss. Thank you.

• This topic was modified 2 months, 2 weeks ago by ImpliedOdds.
• This topic was modified 2 months, 2 weeks ago by ImpliedOdds.
• This topic was modified 2 months, 2 weeks ago by ImpliedOdds.

[ImpliedOdds]

Update

[FractalFreak]

Hi ImpliedOdds,

thanks for your post,
let us get into this.

Firstly, remember that in the MK blog I had already said on Friday that USDJPY is just about to take the upper LTS (see MK blog),
which is what happened today with the news.
Yes, I was long, and yes, it worked very well of course.

Reg. your screenshot, understand the following:
never ever try to trade an H4 reversal AGAINST the squeeze line slope.
That was your mistake here.

As you can clearly see, the DM shorties were still expanding, there was no collapse.
These (btw very small) DM longies are fully within the DM tolerance, the SM will even let these small trader groups win since it is WAY more important to reach for the LTS of the DM shorties.

[FractalFreak]

See:

[FractalFreak]

Then:

[FractalFreak]

It was a “big crime” to trade against the day chart squeeze:

[ImpliedOdds]

Hi Djamal. This is very helpful. I know that checking the longer term charts is important. I admittedly forgot to do so on this one. Blatant sellers displayed there.

[FractalFreak]

Watch around 06:52 from the last MK blog summary:

I said “the LTS are within reach………….the SM can do an up-move and take out the long-term stop of the DM sellers”

So a pretty clear analysis I published 2 days ago, and which came true today.

Of course, you can sometimes also trade against my predictions, however, it is suggested that you have good reasons to do so. .-)

[FractalFreak]

So to summarize:

Mistake:
The mistake was a “beginner’s mistake”, namely, a trade against a squeeze on the H4 & day chart.
Also, the necessary factors for a H4 reversal setup were not there.
The last DM flow was not interpreted correctly, the scale (and of course squeeze modes) were disregarded.

Context:
There were even LTS above the price.
I predicted on the 11/02/2024 that the SM will try to take out these LTS of the DM shorties, something they indeed did today (13/02/2024).

Reminder:
In order to trade an H4 reversal setup, you NEED at least a “collapse” / downward slope in the squeeze line.
Also, note that the SM used the news today to “fish” for the LTS.

So overall dear, one can see that more preparation is required.
Go and watch the video on H4 reversals again.

All the best!
Djamal

[FractalFreak]

H4 chart:

[ImpliedOdds]

Will do. The squeeze line up slope on the H4 seems so subtle. I guess i’ll have to scrutinize the shapes of them very closely going forward. Thanks again. Very helpful. Going to assemble a checklist for myself…

[FractalFreak]

“Hi Djamal. This is very helpful. I know that checking the longer term charts is important. I admittedly forgot to do so on this one. Blatant sellers displayed there. ”

Yes, that also ImpiedOdds.

However, as you can see, by now “filling the gaps of understanding”, your trading should improve as a result. There is also “causality” there.

So remember,

“never trade against a (higher TF) squeeze”.

For trading an H4 reversal setup, you NEED to see the downward slope in the squeeze line (plus the other factors, such as “targets were cleared”, “DM switch”, no immediate big news etc.).

So continue with these points in mind, and by all means, keep on posting.

As you can see, it all makes sense once it was looked at properly. 🙂

Djamal

[ImpliedOdds]

🙏

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