Accuracy of MK-indicator and Volume bars and positions?

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    • #47229
      MatDerKater
      Participant

      From what I have seen so far, the MK-Indicator likely isn’t accurate, but an approximation.

      Without blowing the lid on his secret formulae, it would be nice if at least the nature of the MK-indicator in this regard could be cleared up.

      Otherwise, missing trades I would have otherwise taken cos of waiting on these fkn MT bars to be tagged…..and sure, price came cloes….real close, but no cigar and then jack knives away. I suspect the reality of the real forex market orderflow situation, was that key Stop Loss tranches were indeed taken out.

      So what is the view?

      Deadly accurate, or deadly approximation?

    • #47235
      Admin SME
      Keymaster

      Hi Mat,

      there is no “MK indicator”.
      The MK IS the market structure.
      It shows you all the relevant information, such as the DM, the orders via a handful of indicators, feeds etc.
      However, it feels that you are “jumping in it” rather than having studied enough, otherwise you would understand what “DM tolerance” implies.
      Also, for live trade comments, please use the “commercial” area of the forum.

      Gina
      SME FX

      • #47244
        MatDerKater
        Participant

        I am already a good trader, at least a very good from a technical standpoint……I don’t necessarily need to adopt a whole new system of trading developed by someone else…..

        ……for me, I see the MK as invaluable information that I otherwise have no access to……..and yes, regardless of what the data actually is, or isn’t, I am already sold on on the MK….I have seen enough to realise the value of the information here….

        ……but the details are important, or vital even.

        A Trader using the MK stream, NEEDS to know what he is actually looking at.

        If the SL levels are approximations using some ingenius statistical model, then fine.
        If the SL Levels are data taken from some Retail Brokerage that is being used as a proxy from the ‘DM’ that deals directly with the banks, then fine.

        But a trader needs to know what he is looking at.

        Going back to the GBPUSD….

        Is that small Orange MTSL down below, and that rather large Yellow MTSL up above, still in the game……or would they have been likely taken out by retail brokerage spreads?

        Knowing this information, can be crucial.

    • #47236
      Admin SME
      Keymaster

      Is this “accurate” enough for you?:

      • #47242
        MatDerKater
        Participant

        I mean more this sort of thing:

        I learned my lesson, and simply hit the trade relying on a cynical understanding of a cynical markets, just giving myself plenty room for SL, incase the Orange SL bar did end up being tagged)……..but Orange bar not tagged, and then yellow bar..untouched…..the yellow bar was my target….but as usual I snatched profit at 2:1RR, so that was immaterial to me…….but I think we can all agree, in the real FX markets, REAL SL levels were absolutely 100% run over on that whipsaw move in GBPUSD.

    • #47238
      Admin SME
      Keymaster

      GU:

      • #47254
        MatDerKater
        Participant

        IF that Orange Limit order, and that Yellow Stop Loss Order, got tagged….

        ….then why are they still there?

        Surely you can’t disagree that whether there is still a big fat Limit SELL and a Big Fat Limit STOP BUY order still sitting in the market at these levels, or not, could be of HUGE significance to a trader?

      • #47259
        MatDerKater
        Participant

        And here is a short GBPUSD trade that I had lined up, with the entry fine tuned to my own best approximation of the MK MT Short SL Tranche….(normally I would have just hit that on the good old 61.8% level, and would have gotten filled).

        So the need to know about the accuracy of the levels in the MK charts, is clear……

        …….and I prefer not to talk about the long trade I hit, ‘back up to’ to the Stop SL level, convinced that these short SL levels were yet to be taken out, and to give me my main trade it’s fill.

        Well, everyday is a school day. I think it safe to say, that traders using the MK streams, need to take these levels as approximations and NOT as concrete levels representing the true foreign exchange order levels. I am very open to being persuaded otherwise, but all the evidence points to this being the fact of the matter.

        • This reply was modified 1 month, 3 weeks ago by MatDerKater.
        • This reply was modified 1 month, 3 weeks ago by MatDerKater.
    • #47399
      Admin SME
      Keymaster

      Ok Mat,

      so again,
      EURUSD first took the upper MTS, and now is heading towards the lower MTS.
      Limit orders are also important, but WAY less than MTS. Watch the video in the video course.
      Still, understand DM tolerance and short-term games.

      SME FX

      • #47422
        MatDerKater
        Participant

        I know the generalities of the system…..and again, I have seen more than enough to be convinced of the validity of much of it.

        ….but I need to know whether I am looking at precision, or an approximation. I point you back to the GBPUSD from yesterday, where the Short SL was left on the table, which means if the MK charts were dealing with precision, then the market makers just let a bunch of DM money shorts of the hook, and put them into profits. If we are dealing with some sort of approximation, then surely the DM got rinsed, but the price action didn’t quite match up to what MK charts displayed on the streams.

        Knowing which of the two it is, is absolutely KEY when it comes to making decisions with the MK streams.

        I am sure DJAMAL could offer a clarification that wouldn’t involve revealing the special ingredients to his secret sauce…….’even if the clarification was “often the MK charts doesn’t update or display properly” or something like that.

    • #47401
      Admin SME
      Keymaster

      Remember, as Djamal says, MK traders are “snipers”, not “rambos”. Every entry is only taken after a careful, clear analysis of the respective market structure.
      As it is known in the MK community, MTS are pretty accurate (something you could have observed yourself), often the price takes them to the pip, then reverses.
      Pay attention to that.
      Again, if you want to learn things by “doing” them, fine, just please understand that most MK students want to do it the right way, step-by-step.
      If you have your system and use the MK as an additional filter, that is perfectly fine, that is one of the many ways the MK can be used.
      Just understand what the recommended, proven way is.

      SME FX

    • #47405
      Admin SME
      Keymaster

      “(normally I would have just hit that on the good old 61.8% level, and would have gotten filled)”

      Per se, fibonacci levels are not consistent. Observe the MK long enough and you will see why.

      SME FX

    • #47531
      MatDerKater
      Participant

      So.

      The data displayed in the MK web is not at all accurate, and therefore cannot be trusted for any trade with a likely timeframe of between 1-3 days.

      I have just witnessed a great big red dildo DM Short Volume bar appear in the AUDUSD pair. Problem was, this price action happened 4 hours ago, and it only just appeared just then.

      Screenshots of this showing proof have been posted in the ‘commercial’ section of the website, in line with the SME-FX’s wishes.

      Firstly. The appearance of this HUGE DM Short volume bar, in real time, may have warned against any potential short trade.

      Secondly, The appearance of this huge DM short bar, could have given the green light for low time frame trend following trades (against the DM position).

      Thirdly, basing trading decisions with data full of chinks, gaps, and holes, is no good whatsoever. Being able to look back after the markets close, and the data has been retrospectively fully updated, is no use at all.

      From what I have seen of working with MK web in real time, is that it doesn’t work. At least not during Prime Trading hours.

      If this is the reality of it, then I have no use for it.

    • #47560
      MatDerKater
      Participant

      The volume data is largely a ‘delta Cumulative’ indicator with the colours reversed to spell out the fact that ‘Dumb Money’ buys on red candles and sells on green candles (cos who doesn’t place limit orders and wait for retraces?)

      The SL levels are simply gaps in the volume profile.

      NT = recent gaps on wings
      MT = = session gaps that have been in play some time, and/or acted as pivotal levels a few times
      LT = Longer term session gaps.

      The SL levels are NOT accurate order flow information. But simply an algo guessing where they are likely to be.

      There will be a bit more to it than that no doubt, but that is the overall gist of it, and explains why so many DM SL levels appear on absolute textbook support and resistance level, where every retail trader and his dog was taught to enter trades on…NOT place their damn SL on.

    • #47565
      Christopher Miranda
      Participant

      Its actually been really interesting reading and hearing your thoughts, thanks for your insight.
      It’s fine, you don’t need to continue using the website and subscribing and everything if you don’t like what it is. Just chill like you were, no problem.

      • #47566
        MatDerKater
        Participant

        Aside from the FACT that we are not dealing with some insider real orderflow data feed here, not even a proxy from some retail broker, but a fancy pants cumulative delta rig up, with automated plotting over Volume Profile gaps as ‘SL’ levels, and some statistical calculation of what ‘Dumb Money’ positions are still in the game based on what levels were rinsed……..very sophisticated and clever system I am sure….

        ….but apart from all that.

        If you think that it is ok to trade off charts, with a 4 hour lag on key data throughput, with chinks and holes all through it….

        ….if you think that is in anyway tenable……..

        …….then you aren’t a real trader.

        How come you are the only one active on this forum who has been here longer than 2 weeks anyhow?

        • #47567
          Christopher Miranda
          Participant

          Couldn’t tell ya, but its fine lol.

        • #47626
          Tim Tim
          Participant

          I guess it doesn’t really matter how the back end works. “They are not gonna tell you how the back end works so it’s just theory trying to figure it out”
          Just try trading it for like 50 trades and see if it’s profitable or not.

          Profitable or not profitable is the important question

        • #47632
          MatDerKater
          Participant

          When you figure out what it is, and realise that it isn’t a lot different from what you were doing anyway……..except you can pick the key levels a lot better manually (cos’key Supply & Demand levels is all these MTSL are…..there ‘might’ be ‘Dumb Money’ SL sitting there in the real markets, there might not be), the important thing is whether you appreciate being mislead or not, or whether you feel like a right chump for missing trades based on ‘DUMB MONEY STILL NEEDS RINSED’, or taking trades aiming at these levels when all they were all along were bloody volume profile gaps, with not a real SL in sight.

          Of course, there is no doubt in my mind of the potential for someone to be able to learn to trade profitably with the MK charts overtime. Trading Volume Gaps and/or Supply & Demand zones in line with the overall trend isn’t a bad strategy, but then there are the 3-4 hour data throughput lags, which as far as I can tell, happen everyday during peak hours……with many of the data gaps in the charts remaining as holes in the data.

          No.

          Just No.

    • #47651
      Admin SME
      Keymaster

      “I know the generalities of the system…..and again, I have seen more than enough to be convinced of the validity of much of it.”

      Mat, you change your opinion daily,
      please study it step-by-step, do not just jump into it.

      SME FX

      • #47654
        MatDerKater
        Participant

        Yeah….I am now embarrassed about my initial full on enthuse. At my age, I should know better. I was misfortunate enough to come to MK indicators with ‘beginners luck’, leading me to believe that the SL tranches were REAL.

        They aint real.

        I don’t need the MK charts to trade.

        I can pull up a bunch of periodic Volume profiles and draw a bunch of orange and yellow lines across the notches/gaps myself. It’s what I was already doing, except I drew faded boxes representing ‘zones’ instead of lines representing hard levels.

        I can even tell myself if I want, that the fact that such a Supply & Demand zone was not Rinsed, represents ‘DM tolerance’ if I must.

        …and regarding that 4 hour lag during peak trading times. I already posted evidence of it. I expect more of it today. Not that I shall be looking for it.

        £56 for charts with up 4 hours data throughput lag during peak trading times?

        “Could you put me through to Trading Standards please?”

    • #47652
      Admin SME
      Keymaster

      “4 hour lag ”

      Where did you get that “H4 lag” from?

      SME FX

    • #47653
      Admin SME
      Keymaster

      “or whether you feel like a right chump for missing trades based on ‘DUMB MONEY STILL NEEDS RINSED’, or taking trades aiming at these levels when all they were all along were bloody volume profile gaps, with not a real SL in sight.

      Of course, there is no doubt in my mind of the potential for someone to be able to learn to trade profitably with the MK charts overtime. Trading Volume Gaps and/or Supply & Demand zones in line with the overall trend isn’t a bad strategy”

      Trying to combine a statistical system with the MK can be challenging, if you do not have sufficient experience with one of these two components. Again, there is a minimum of knowledge / experience required regarding the MK until you can do a more advanced thing such as combining a stat. system with the MK.
      Why?
      Because for example, sometimes the statistical system will give you trade signals, and these are WITHIN the DM tolerance. That implies, that sometimes, such signals are in the direction of “some” DM, but that does not mean that the signal is bad or should be skipped.

      We will ask Djamal to make a video about that at some point.

      SME FX

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