Djamal, please comment…

[ImpliedOdds]

Hi Djamal. I know this trade has cons, but it has several pros that price seemed to ignore. I’m hoping you can comment so that I can understand your thoughts (albeit after the fact). Thank you.

Pros (in my view):
1) Price bounces right at shortie level indicating that the MM’ers do not want to continue short and pay the shorties.
2) Red above green on DM indicator.
3) Shorts are in profit.
4) Not many recent long positions in play.
5) Plenty of room to go up before longs would be in profit.

By the way, this trade went significantly down. I’ve included the after screenshot as well.

[ImpliedOdds]

By the way…why does the short level red “dot” disappear after price goes below it? Shouldn’t that remain to show at what price shorts are in the market? Thank you.

[ciprobay]

was wondering the same lately…
my guess is those shorties exited the market in profit

[FractalFreak]

Hi,

the red position nest disappears when the shorties closed their positions, so it is at their discretion.

D

[Admin SME]

Hello IO,

we will now send this to Djamal.

Btw, please remember that none of his comments / none of our comments represent any trading or investment advice.
From a legal perspective, any of these comments represent “trade chatter” only, so you are fully responsible for ANY trade decisions you may or may not do.
Lat but not least, ALWAYS use a reasonable risk policy.

SME FX

[ImpliedOdds]

Totally understand! Just demo for me and trying to better understand how to assess each of the indicators and properly evaluate each market condition. I appreciate it!

[FractalFreak]

Hi IO,

obviously, that was a short trade.

Pros:
– There were juicy MTS right below the price.
– Overall more DM longies than shorties.
– Typical “failed reversal” setup.

Cons:
– No squeeze.
– “Out of range” scenario (“OR”).
– Expensive entry.

Never buy in such a scenario.

D

[ImpliedOdds]

Thanks so much Djamal. Much appreciated!

[FractalFreak]

You are welcome ImpliedOdds.

D

[FractalFreak]

See the day chart (current):

[FractalFreak]

See current H1 UJ:

[FractalFreak]

Here comments on your previous chart:

[FractalFreak]

Summary:

In this case, it was rather easy to predict that UJ would go DOWN. There was a CLEAR target below the low (huge MTS), the recent DM flow was more long, there was a typical reversed grail pattern / failed reversal scenario.
On the day chart there was even the big low as a clear target.
There was no squeeze.
The reason why this short was ADVANCED is because UJ was already in a clear “out of range” mode, so an expensive entry was required (not for beginners).
If you thought that UJ would go up, please study more dear. There was not even a DM switch, so without any shorty flow, no dm switch, and without the main targets being taken, it made no sense to try trading a reversal up,
that was DM thinking.

Lots of love,
D

[FractalFreak]

Here also the current UJ H4:

[FractalFreak]

[Author]

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