02/12/2023 MK blog summary

Hello traders,

this is a new routine whereby I will highlight various aspects of the setups of the previous week with text and screenshots. The idea is not to completely replicate the MK blog in writing, but rather to highlight several aspects which could be helpful to our traders.
Feel free to ask questions, just remember, the content only covers the MK blog summaries which have already been published (via the video).
I hope you enjoy it!

Let us start.

Regarding the EURUSD short trade,
yes, this was a “Golden combi”, we had the H4 reversal energy down (DM switch, shorties leaving, previous high was cleared) and the IR MTS on the H1. Note how on the H1 we had STS on the way to the MTS and that no major DM shorties were in the way.
So by pushing EURUSD down, the SM Algos achieve all the “objectives” in “one go”:
– They conduct the H4 reversal against the DM buyers.
– They take the STS and OGZ in the way.
– They take the main target, in this case the MTS of the longies.

Since the high has been cleared already and there was a “double pin” on the H1, they also made sure that any DM shorties (who had a tight stop) got cleared out first.
As you can see, by following the principles, the SM succeeds in making the DM lose (as a collective), no matter whether these bought or sold.

Also, it was not difficult to predict that scenario since on both time frames the constellation developed over hours.
The target level was clear, and as one can see from the H1 squeeze line, most DM shorties had left the market already more than 20h ago.

Let us also look at USDJPY.
Firstly, remember the beautiful OST trades from the week before. Two OST signals long appeared, even shorties came in, so these got filled nicely.

Thereafter, we had a new MTS below the price and some DM longies, all this while most shorties left.
So after the price went sideways, it then took the MTS of the DM longies.
Again, not a tricky trade setup.

Hi, I’m trying to find some statistics you might have by now as to how often an OST is hit?

Hi, I’m wondering who controls what when it comes to price movement. Is it the SM algo that controls whether the price goes up or down or does the SM algo only react to DM trading. Maybe it’s a bit more sinister that the SM algo lures DMs by creating patterns that look like good trades just to get them to trade in a particular direction.

Thank you for opening my eyes.

Max

Hello Djamal, I trust you’re doing well. I’m a newcomer to your channel and recently completed your course. I’m currently exploring the MK web, finding it fascinating. Your dedication to unraveling this concept and creating such a platform is commendable. I have a few questions about the MK summary and would appreciate your time in addressing them.

Starting with the EURUSD short trade, how do you determine a low bias? Which meter level is optimal, and on which time frame is the bias more pronounced? Assuming the best entry for the short trade is when the high has been cleared, considering STS above the price, would the SM Algos not attempt these before the move down due to the mentioned low bias? Where would you recommend entering the short trade in this scenario, and what’s your suggestion for a stop loss placement?

Regarding the USDJPY trade, how do you recommend trading the OST? For instance, on the first OST, there was a slight dip in the green squeeze/long line. Going long here would have hit any stop loss for a reasonable risk-to-reward ratio. On the second OST, waiting for a significant dip in squeeze/long line and entering the trade expensively at 148.430, what’s the likelihood of the OST target being achieved for a favorable risk-to-reward ratio?

Lastly, could you provide a more detailed explanation of OGZ and how they work? On the USDJPY chart, as the price moved up, it filled the OGZ, but it remained on the right-hand side of the Y-axis. The price then moved, filling the OGZ on a downward and upward move while it still stayed on the right-hand side. The upper part of the same OGZ acted as support before filling it again on the way to the MTS, disappearing only when it reached the MTS. Can you recommend a trading approach for this?

Thank you, and I eagerly await your response.

John A wrote:

Hi, I’m trying to find some statistics you might have by now as to how often an OST is hit?

Hi, I notice a question subsequent to mine was answered with some depth so perhaps this was missed. Do you have any data to share as to how often an OST you print on your charts is hit? Thankyou.

” I’m currently exploring the MK web, finding it fascinating. Your dedication to unraveling this concept and creating such a platform is commendable.”

Thanks a lot, and welcome to the MCA community!

“Starting with the EURUSD short trade, how do you determine a low bias? Which meter level is optimal, and on which time frame is the bias more pronounced?”

A “low bias” situation is there if either the market is empty (check the USDJPY situation shown in the MK blog summary of today), or the DM flow is low (without clear targets), or if there are stops on both sides, or the price is within the middle of the H4 range. It will not take you long to get a feeling for that.
Understand, we wait for and time very specific trade setups. Yes, these may vary in terms of the quality, however, if the bias is too low, we even skip the trade altogether.

“Where would you recommend entering the short trade in this scenario, and what’s your suggestion for a stop loss placement?”

Reg. the EURUSD short, be aware of the following aspects:
– it was a “Golden combi”, so we had the H4 reversal energy + IR H1 MTS
– the previous high had already been cleared (see H4 chart).
– STS per se are not very high on the “priority list” (often we see them getting taken out “on the way)
– your stop placement in such a scenario can be a little further away than the distance to the MTS target, even like RR 0.85

“Lastly, could you provide a more detailed explanation of OGZ and how they work? On the USDJPY chart, as the price moved up, it filled the OGZ, but it remained on the right-hand side of the Y-axis. The price then moved, filling the OGZ on a downward and upward move while it still stayed on the right-hand side. The upper part of the same OGZ acted as support before filling it again on the way to the MTS, disappearing only when it reached the MTS. Can you recommend a trading approach for this?”

Like STS, OGZ are not high on the priority list. However, we sometimes see how the SM fills them (by the pip) for a pullback etc.
We also see these often close to MTS.
Rarely, they are worth being traded on their own (but it does exist).

“waiting for a significant dip in squeeze/long line and entering the trade expensively at 148.430, what’s the likelihood of the OST target being achieved for a favorable risk-to-reward ratio?”

Also watch the MK blog summary I published today.
Yes, it is necessary to wait for a dip in the squeeze line, sometimes that allows for a better price (see EA from the MK blog summary), however, often it also requires a more expensive entry price.
If the price is too close to the OST target and therefore you cannot implement a reasonable RR, then it is sometimes necessary to skip the trade (albeit that hurts).
It also depends on things such as the DM flow.

“Thank you, and I eagerly await your response.”

Welcome.

Admin SME wrote:

“Do you have any data to share as to how often an OST you print on your charts is hit? ”

Hi John,

when there is no expanding squeeze line in the way of an OST signal (important!), then the hit rate is around 80%, which is rather unheard of in FX.

We hope that helps!

SME FX

Thankyou

Thank you very much for taking your time to give this detailed explanation!

You are welcome, Abdoulaye,

keep on studying these factors, and with some screen-time, you will develop a “feeling” for how the market causality unfolds in front of your eyes.
It is not rocket science. Just takes some devotion of time and commitment to the game. 😉

Djamal