I have been looking at Option Strikes AUDUSD. Its possibly looks like if there are a couple of strikes and price is at the top/bottom of H4 there is a strong possibility that it reverses. Just used basic ICT concepts as well (Order Block/FVG/Displacement & Market Structure Shift). There are similar examples on NZDUSD, USDCAD, EURUSD & EURJPY charts

There are possible other factors as well DM flow/ Squeeze & News.

Just something to look at.

Thanks

Wesley

Thank you, Shalva.

“It’s so amazing that you’ve mentioned market’s “long term memory”, clustering and “self-organizing” as that’s how anything would’ve been created in the first place including ourselves. ”

That is exactly right.

“I would argue actually that fractality has nothing to do with the direction of the market since I have this Fourier extrapolator indicator and sometimes, when it predicts a very steep move in either direction and that direction coincides with other currency pairs within a day or two the price is extremely likely to spike (though not before it moves in an opposite direction).”

Yes, if you like, post it in the forum.

“The smart money boldness concept to me really is just them taking what was already there, continuously reiterating it to fit the manipulator’s agenda and presenting it as the original ”

That is correct.

“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, but the illusion of knowledge”

Exactly.

I see, no fractal ever truly settles though does it, especially not with new actors entering the market all the time but that’s where all the information, both direct and oblique, on how to trade programs new traders into acting in a predictable manner so then algos utilize all sort of gaslighting tactics to give any approach a random distribution, even more, if the majority of market participants are unaware of what’s going on they turn this into a feedback loop hence the word “corruption” I used earlier instead of a natural self-organizing process moving towards iterative stability, this overlays with everyday life so much one could apply trading principles anywhere. The smart money boldness concept to me really is just them taking what was already there, continuously reiterating it to fit the manipulator’s agenda and presenting it as the original – something George emphasizes by quoting Stephen Hawking that “The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, but the illusion of knowledge”. It’s very obvious what’s going on here though judging this kind of behavior is inconsequential, exposing it in my honest opinion certainly should be welcome by anyone who is not an agent of the system and is aware enough.

I would argue actually that fractality has nothing to do with the direction of the market since I have this Fourier extrapolator indicator and sometimes, when it predicts a very steep move in either direction and that direction coincides with other currency pairs within a day or two the price is extremely likely to spike (though not before it moves in an opposite direction). This was not a random indicator I use since any pattern is a fractal and any fractal is self-similar motion therefore there just have to be cases of high level of predictability due to accumulated momentum that has to eventually reveal itself no matter what.

It’s so amazing that you’ve mentioned market’s “long term memory”, clustering and “self-organizing” as that’s how anything would’ve been created in the first place including ourselves. I’ve had a lot of success (in demo admittedly, H4) just opening the charts once and knowing where the price will generally move right away without analyzing anything, it’s clearly not a big deal for the subconscious so give us a feel of what’s going on if we just tune in and are not distracted.

Hi Shalva,

this question shows that you thought deeply about the MK, well done!
I am surprised that this was not asked earlier.
So this would be my answer:

It is a bit of a “egg-chicken-egg” situation. Around 70 years ago, when the markets were not manipulated (in the same way) as today, the price action used to be (multi-)fractal.
The reason for that is that out of the “chaotic” process of financial markets, some “self-organizing” order established itself in form of fractal properties.
The price started to get “self-affine”, to show volatility clustering and to even have “long-term memory”. That is often the case when you have a system that is first unorganized and chaotic, but then “settles” down on such properties (i.e. see examples from nature, such as plants, organisms, etc.).

Now,
obviously, the SM Algos took all that into account and incorporated that “fractality” into their “market making” mechanisms. That in itself was not complex; as we know, some Dm accumulation on one time frame will impact all others etc.
Also, remember that the fractality itself has nothing to do with “direction”. For example, a pattern which breaks either to the upside or to the downside can of course be fractal in both cases.

So the answer is yes. First markets were fractal, then at a later stage (when the algos took over the game), that fractality was continued.

D

That was an excellent unpacking and explanation, particularly the 50/50 part, I’ve noticed a lot of things like that but until they click together it’s not much use obviously, it is a fascinating topic indeed although mind-bogglingly intimidating at first. I suppose I attributed more to the algos than they deserve.
I have another question then: can’t we reverse engineer everything that’s going on and automate it and how accurate a predictive power can we have in principle?
In the bigger picture, that is with both the people and the algos moving the markets, how much of previous tick data is taken into consideration by the algos for, let’s say, support and resistance levels? I mean, are the markets intrinsically fractal and manipulated or fractal because they are manipulated? Is there even such a thing as financial markets without manipulation on this planet?
The way I see it right now in terms of hierarchy is like this: Fractal unpredictable nature -> market manipulation -> manipulated partially predictable nature that DM participants take for fractal unpredictable nature and on top recursive feedback into the algos in the form of no easy money principle and the like.
Trying to separate natural phenomena from the manipulation here to elevate myself a level above the markets and see what’s going on ground up.

Thank you